Schifffahrt: Charterraten und Analysen

3 February 2023 Global dirty trade routes-reshuffle again in 2022

This is our third edition of Poten’s ranking of the Top 20 Global Dirty Trade Routes (covering both crude oil and dirty products). The last two editions (2020 and 2021) showed significant changes in various trade routes and this year is no different.

While the global Covid-19 pandemic was the main driver of the changes in 2020 and 2021, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was the catalyst of many of the changes last year. Another difference was the direction of the change. In 2020 and 2021, total ton-miles declined (by 5.5% and 4.5% respectively), but in 2022, global ton-mile demand for crude oil and dirty products increased by 5.7%.

This growth was also reflected in the tanker freight market, which showed a strong recovery. However, the increase in ton-mile demand in 2022 was not across the board. As the tables on this page clearly illustrate, there were clear winners and losers within the main trade routes. In today’s Tanker Opinion, we will discuss a few of the most dramatic changes.

27 January 2023 European trade flow changes boost tanker demand

During 2022, despite the economic and geopolitical uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine, European oil demand continued its post-Covid recovery. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine and leading up to the December 5 EU ban of seaborne Russian crude oil imports, Europe started to diversify its sources of crude oil. This has led to a major reshuffling of trade flows, which also had a considerable impact on the utilization of the global tanker fleet. In this Weekly Opinion, we will review these changes and look into the future to see if these new trade patterns are likely to stay in 2023.

13 January 2023 Key tanker market developments for 2023

Many researchers and analysts start the new year with a forecast of what will happen in the markets. This is a very dangerous thing to do; just look at the last three years. Nobody forecasted Covid-19 and – apart from a few Kremlin insiders – the Russian invasion of Ukraine was also totally unexpected. Both events caused significant personal losses and had a massive impact on the global economy, the energy markets and the tanker market. With the ongoing war in Europe, the threat of a global recession and heightened geopolitical tension in Asia, the developments in 2023 are equally uncertain, even without considering that there may be future black swan events.

Against this backdrop, why would anybody want to venture a guess about what might happen over the next 12 months? We do. We think it makes sense to do this because it forces us to think about the future in a structured fashion and it helps us organize our thoughts about the key market drivers for 2023. Some, most, or all our takes could be wrong (we review them at the end of the year), but it is a useful exercise. So, what are the five key tanker market drivers for 2023?