Schifffahrt: Charterraten und Analysen

September 08, 2023: Is the tanker market facing a typical summer lull in 2023?

As we have observed in previous Weekly Opinions, tanker rates, both for crude oil and product tankers, are both cyclical and seasonal. However, in many years, external factors, like wars, pandemics and economic shocks create so much rate volatility that they overwhelm the market’s seasonal factors, and it appears they are no longer there. In recent years, both the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine created external shocks to the market that crushed seasonal factors. However, 2023 has been a more “normal” market so far and we have seen rates, especially for the larger crude tankers weaken throughout the summer. Does that mean that we are experiencing the more typical summer doldrums this year and, more importantly, are we at the cusp of a seasonal recovery in tanker demand and rates?

September 01, 2023: Another military coup in Africa disrupts crude oil supply

On Wednesday, August 30, military officers in Gabon said they removed President Ali Bongo Ondimba from power, just after the country’s election body declared him the winner of a third term. Gabon’s military cancelled the results, closed the borders and moved to consolidate power over the next several days. President Bongo, who was president since 2009, when he took over from his father Omar (who ruled the country since 1967), was put under house arrest. The military announced that the coup leader, General Brice Oligui Nguema – a cousin of Mr. Bongo – would be installed as “transitional president” next Monday. Military takeovers happen quite often in Africa. Only last month the leader of Niger was overthrown. According to the Financial Times, the coup in Gabon marks the eight putsch in Central and West Africa since 2020. However, the takeover in Gabon is different from our industry’s perspective because it involves a significant oil producer and OPEC member. In this opinion, we will try to determine what impact the coup may have on crude oil flows and tanker employment in the region.

August 25, 2023 : Dispute between Turkey and Iraq cuts European crude supply

Earlier this week, officials from Turkey and Iraq tried to reach a breakthrough in talks to restart flows through a pipeline that carries oil from the fields in Northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. This pipeline carried 400-500,000 b/d in recent years, destined mostly for Europe. Turkey halted flows on the pipeline in March of this year after the International Court of Arbitration at the International Chamber of Commerce ordered them to pay a reported net $1.5 Billion in damages to Iraq for unauthorized transportation of oil.

According to the ruling, Turkey breached a 50-year-old pipeline transit agreement by allowing crude oil from Kurdistan to be exported without Bagdad’s consent. The Turkish action keeps 500,000 b/d of oil off the global market at a time that oil prices are rising, and Europe needs alternative supplies due to their ban on Russian oil imports. A resumption of exports would increase the availability of oil in the Mediterranean and boost the employment opportunities for Aframax and Suezmax tankers in the region.